Craig Callahan, DBA
Founder & President,
Chairman of the ICON Investment Committee
- Portfolio Manager of the ICON Fund, ICON Opportunities, and Long/Short Fund; Co-Portfolio Manager of the ICON Risk-Managed Balance Fund
- Created ICON’s proprietary valuation model
- Founded ICON in 1986
ICON Insights:
Top 15 Reasons Why Investors Have Missed the Bull Market
Dr. Craig Callahan, ICON Advisers – Founder & President
June 6, 2017
From the recession bottom March 9, 2009, through May 26, 2017, the S&P 1500 Index has gained 332.1%, meaning $1.00 invested in the index and held over that period would have grown to $4.32. What an opportunity for wealth accumulation! Yet, at ICON we suspect many investors, from pension plans to individuals, did not fully participate. We have been guided by our ICON valuation methodology which consistently indicated stocks, on average, were never over-priced typical of market peaks. In our commentaries to investors and interviews, we regularly stated that we were in a multi-year bull market and that stock prices could go higher. Let’s borrow from David Letterman and poke a little fun at those who missed out!
Here now are the Top 15 Reasons Why Investors Missed the Bull Market of the Last Eight Years:
- Didn’t like the bailouts
- Have been stuck in the 1970’s and thought inflation would come back and interest rates would rise
- Saw a head and shoulders top forming a few times
- Thought P/E ratios were too high
- Don’t understand the Federal Reserve and thought the Government was “printing money”
- Changed risk tolerance after 2008
- Was told “we are in a 17-year secular bear market”
- Bought gold instead of equities
- Really like earning 0% on CDs
- Have been trying to reduce volatility instead of trying to make money – looking for an “alternative” to 332.1%
- Had predicted rising interest rates, and when that was proven wrong , believed low interest rates were fabricated and problematic
- Thought Government deficits would cause a calamity
- Thought bull markets have a shelf life, like four years
- Forgot “buy & hold” can succeed.
And the Number 1 reason investors didn’t fully participate in the recent Bull Market:
- Just not good at recognizing Bull Markets
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Opinions and forecasts regarding industries, companies and/or themes and portfolio composition and holdings are all subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions, and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security, industry or sector.
Investing in securities involves risks. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to successful results.
The unmanaged Standard & Poor’s Composite 1500 (S&P 1500) Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index comprising 1,500 stocks of Large-cap, Mid-cap, and Small-cap U.S. companies.
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